Rebellion Takes Over Syria and the End of the Ba'ath Party

Pakistan's Sunni Islamist clergy views the Syrian civil war and the rebels' takeover through the lens of a Shia-Sunni conflict. However, the underlying causes and implications go far beyond sectarianism.

There is no denying that Hafez al-Assad's Ba'ath Party and later Bashar al-Assad's regime were dictatorial, employing harsh and oppressive measures against political opponents. This is much like other Arab rulers—Saddam in Iraq, Anwar Sadat/Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, and the monarchs of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. Despite being a dictator, Hafez al-Assad's pre-civil war Syria operated under a semi-socialist economic system, which provided basic necessities to the common people. Syria, unlike many Middle Eastern countries, had limited economic resources. Still, the Ba'ath Party managed to maintain a relatively equitable system of economic justice. While Assad was an Alawite—a Shia sect—there was no widespread sectarian bias in governance.

The Role of the Alawite Sect

The Alawite sect, often labeled liberal or secular by other Muslims in Syria, has faced criticism from Sunni clerics. Historically referred to as the Nusairis, the Alawite sect emerged in the 9th and 10th centuries. Although Hafez al-Assad was associated with Alawites, the party itself was a pan-Arab nationalist and socialist entity. Most of its members were Sunni, reflecting Syria's Sunni majority. During the civil war in 2016, some Alawite leaders publicly distanced themselves from the Assad regime—an unprecedented move. Meanwhile, Assad's political opponents, particularly Islamist groups like the Muslim Brotherhood, continued to promote the idea that Syria, as a Sunni-majority nation, must be turned into a Sunni Islamic state.

External Influences and the Rise of Islamist Rebels

Similar to Israel's early support for Hamas as a counterweight to Yasser Arafat's Fatah, external forces backed Islamist factions against Assad's government. The Ba'ath Party's alignment with Russia and steadfast support for Palestinian liberation made Syria an adversary of the U.S. and Israel. Years of drought in the country devastated Syria's farmers, and public frustration with prolonged dictatorship culminated in mass protests during the "Arab Spring." Assad's brutal crackdown on dissent fueled the emergence of various armed rebel groups, heavily funded by Saudi Arabia, the U.S., Israel, and Turkey. Many of these groups later coalesced under ISIS, infamous for its atrocities.

Over the years, various nations supported different factions based on their political agendas, with Turkey, the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Israel backing certain rebels, while Russia and Iran fought to preserve Assad's regime. However, recent geopolitical shifts have weakened Assad's allies. Israeli successes against Hezbollah and Hamas have diminished Iran's influence, while Russia's focus has shifted to Ukraine, reducing its military support for Assad. This has allowed Turkish-backed rebels and Saudi- and U.S.-supported factions, including former al-Qaeda commander Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, to unite and overthrow Assad's government.

International Implications

The conflict also reflects broader international dynamics. The U.S. appears to be retreating from the Ukraine conflict, while Russia is vacating its military bases in Syria. These shifts indicate a reorientation of global priorities.

Pakistan's Perspective

In Pakistan, religious hardliners interpret these developments as a continuation of Afghanistan's "Islamic revival" under the Taliban, now extending to Syria. However, the question remains: after escaping the grip of a brutal dictator, will Syria follow Libya and Afghanistan into deeper chaos, or will it manage to establish a stable governance system? The situation remains uncertain.